latest commentary

Market Commentary – 1st September 2018

Turkish delight? In Turkey, the supreme leader has declared that if interest rates go down so will inflation. He has borrowed his economic theory from his counterpart in the US who believes that making America great necessitates a trade war. Official Turkish inflation is around 16%; unofficially it is heading for 100%. Small beer when

Market Commentary – 1st July 2018

Market Commentary 1st July 2018 The summer of ‘76   The UK is basking in something of a heatwave reminiscent of 1976 when the early part of the year was unusually cold (it snowed in June) and then hit 90F (32C for some of you) for the next 3 months without a break. England’s green

Market Commentary – 1st June 2018

The Italian Job Bond market gyrations continue with the latest episode triggered by political machinations in Italy. Having voted for “populist” parties the voters were informed by the Itlaian president, appointed some years back by a very pro EU government, that, in their own interests, whether it was the people’s or the pro-EU faction was

Market Commentary – 1st April 2018

Market Commentary – 1st April 2018 Three perspectives: one direction As we are at a very significant juncture this month, the likes of which has been seen by very few current market participants, some of whom are in careers that began less than 10 years ago, we are going to look at the actions of

Market Commentary – 1st March 2018

Market Commentary – 1 March 2018 At the beginning of February, we were contemplating whether the market was about to hit the buffers, and into the lows we have indeed seen the FTSE 100 fall, by 7.8%, and the S&P 500, by 11.8%. Since then much chopping about, with no as yet clear trend, has

Market Commentary – 1st February 2018

Market Commentary –1st February 2018 Last week, the U.S. equity market climbed to the steepest valuation level in history, based on the valuation measures most highly correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 10 to 12-year total returns, across a century of market cycles. These measures include the S&P 500 price/revenue ratio, the Margin-Adjusted CAPE (a

Market Commentary – 1st January 2018

Market Commentary –1st January 2018 At this time of year our major preoccupation is not concerning ourselves with forecasts for 2018, but pondering over how 2017 panned out so quickly and what we have learned from its passing. Forecasts are financial candy. Forecasts give people who hate the feeling of uncertainty something emotionally soothing.” Thomac

Market Commentary – 1st December 2017

Whilst some commentators, and the Federal Reserve, insist that there is no bubble in US equity markets – we will return to that assumption later – we can be in little doubt that Bitcoin is beginning to make the South Sea bubble episode, in the 1720s, look like a small blip in the share price.

Market Commentary – 1st November 2017

There seems to be no stopping the rising tide that has lifted almost every asset class including bonds. We can’t remember a period like it when everything went up together; including Bitcoin which now has a price tag of $6500 against just under $1000 at the beginning of the year. The latest rise has been

Market Commentary – 1st October 2017

Some of our readers will remember that nearly 30 years ago one of those hurricanes that usually befall the inhabitants on the other side of the pond turned up on our shores, much to the chagrin of the Met office and Michael Fish in particular. A viewer had phoned in – no email or Twitter