There is something faintly surreal about watching markets during an inflation shock. Oil spikes overnight, freight costs surge, petrol stations reprice within days, and consumers immediately feel the squeeze in household budgets. Yet when the official inflation figures finally arrive, they often suggest calm rather than chaos. Core inflation softens. Headlines talk about “disinflation progress.” Bond markets rally on hopes that central banks may finally be nearing rate cuts.

This week's Fed meeting, alongside the Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB) meetings provide a good opportunity to consider how far markets have already moved this year.