This month's big three investment themes

The dominant force in markets during May was the slow, uneven progress of ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran. Oil held above $100 a barrel for much of the month, pushing US consumer inflation to 3.8% year-on-year, its highest reading since 2023. The Federal Reserve, now under Kevin Warsh, held rates at 3.75% and offered no forward guidance. A cut by June, which many had expected earlier in the year, is no longer on the table. The tone shifted in the sec

In this episode of Wisdom Shared, Senior Investment Manager Harry Children and CIO Fahad Hassan explore why equity markets are near all-time highs despite geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices, and sticky inflation.

Yesterday, Charlie Parker and Fahad Hassan led our latest market drop-in. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, sharp moves in energy markets and a highly uncertain political backdrop, corporate earnings are continuing to deliver positive surprises. If you weren’t able to attend, you’ll find below a concise overview of the key themes currently driving markets and shaping our thinking.

1. Semiconductor stock supernova The dominant positive trend in equity markets since the recovery began in early April has been strength in AI infrastructure-related stocks. This has been influenced primarily by growing evidence that large language models (LLMs) are beginning to generate meaningful revenue and are becoming increasingly embedded within enterprise workflows. At the beginning of April, Anthropic - the company behind Claude - announced a 300% increase in annualis

There is something faintly surreal about watching markets during an inflation shock. Oil spikes overnight, freight costs surge, petrol stations reprice within days, and consumers immediately feel the squeeze in household budgets. Yet when the official inflation figures finally arrive, they often suggest calm rather than chaos. Core inflation softens. Headlines talk about “disinflation progress.” Bond markets rally on hopes that central banks may finally be nearing rate cuts.

April marked a distinct turn in the tone of markets. The rhetoric and bluster of March gave way to hopes of diplomacy as both sides stepped back from war and brinkmanship. Investors are betting that the rise in inflation and hit to growth will prove temporary, a view that remains uncertain but has been sufficient to steady sentiment for now. First-quarter earnings have, so far, stayed close to plan. With around a quarter of US large-cap companies having reported, earnings are

The last few weeks have been a rollercoaster of escalation, volatility and relief. While this may be a permanent feature of the present era, it shouldn’t be thought of purely in the context of one man. The war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have had a profound impact on the price of oil, inflation and the bond markets. Equity markets have shown remarkable resilience and are already near all-time highs. While peace negotiations are ongoing, the market think