Yesterday, Charlie Parker and Fahad Hassan led our latest market drop-in. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, sharp moves in energy markets and a highly uncertain political backdrop, corporate earnings are continuing to deliver positive surprises. If you weren’t able to attend, you’ll find below a concise overview of the key themes currently driving markets and shaping our thinking.

1. Semiconductor stock supernova The dominant positive trend in equity markets since the recovery began in early April has been strength in AI infrastructure-related stocks. This has been influenced primarily by growing evidence that large language models (LLMs) are beginning to generate meaningful revenue and are becoming increasingly embedded within enterprise workflows. At the beginning of April, Anthropic - the company behind Claude - announced a 300% increase in annualis

April marked a distinct turn in the tone of markets. The rhetoric and bluster of March gave way to hopes of diplomacy as both sides stepped back from war and brinkmanship. Investors are betting that the rise in inflation and hit to growth will prove temporary, a view that remains uncertain but has been sufficient to steady sentiment for now. First-quarter earnings have, so far, stayed close to plan. With around a quarter of US large-cap companies having reported, earnings are

1. Trump blockade and failed talks - long lasting effects The US and Iran have failed to close a deal regarding the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Trump has announced a naval blockade of the Strait, with an intention of intercepting vessels heading to or from Iranian ports and clearing mines laid in the waterway. By doing this, Trump has threatened to cut off Iran's oil exports and end its practice of charging ships a toll to pass, stripping Tehran of the ec

Fahad Hassan, CIO Executive summary US-Israel-Iran conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices are higher. Portfolios had already been defensively positioned — gilts exited, duration cut, UK mid-caps and European small caps removed — all of which have since fallen sharply. Macro The last month has seen a reset of inflation expectations, as the US and Israel entered a conflict with Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow body of water responsible for

There can be no doubt that this is a profoundly dangerous moment for the world. The risk that the current conflict in the Middle East becomes an entrenched war that could undermine global economic growth is very real.

Charlie Parker and Eleanor Williams examine US vulnerabilities in global supply chains, in particular their dependence on Chinese rare earth and drug components. The hosts discuss the short-term risks and policy responses underway to reduce that exposure and where this may lead.

Market volatility punctuated the start of 2026 and is continuing into February across all equity markets, with even the star of 2025, precious metals, not shielded from the storm.

The start of 2026 has seen a continued bout of volatility despite a largely positive backdrop for risky assets like shares.

Charlie Parker and Fahad Hassan examine how massive AI-driven investment has shaped 2025’s markets, concentrating gains in a handful of tech leaders and raising valuation and concentration questions.

Global political and economic events have been dramatic in recent years, yet stockmarkets have still made progress.

Inflation has a tendency to vanish quietly, only to reappear when least expected.

Annabel Gillard, AI ethics expert, shares her views on how we can engage positively with AI.