July market drop-in roundup

Andy Burnham and the enormous smallness of the British state

In this episode of Wisdom Shared, Head of Albemarle Street Partners Charlie Parker and Partnerships Manager Nathan McKerlie discuss Andy Burnham’s elevation to Prime Minister, his new cabinet, and the implications for taxes, pensions, gilts and UK growth. The episode examines Burnham’s policy priorities, including devolution and industrial strategy, and outlines risks and talking points financial advisers should raise with clients over the coming months.

This month's big three investment themes

When the second quarter began, investors were confronting an uncomfortable combination of rising inflation and slowing economic growth. Thankfully, by the time it ended, the picture had completely shifted. The MSCI World index gained 13.5% during the quarter, its best performance since 2020. The quarter was shaped by three distinct developments, each of which carries implications for the rest of the year. The first was corporate earnings. Companies reporting first-quarter re

UK Politics and Market Implications Following Prime Minister, Keir Starmer's planned departure and Andy Burnham's anticipated arrival as Prime Minister, the initial view is that the impact on UK markets will be limited. Although Burnham is seen as slightly to the left of Starmer, bond markets care more about fiscal discipline than political labels. The UK's constrained fiscal position leaves little room for any government to pursue expansionary policy without unsettling gilts

This month's big three investment themes

The dominant force in markets during May was the slow, uneven progress of ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran. Oil held above $100 a barrel for much of the month, pushing US consumer inflation to 3.8% year-on-year, its highest reading since 2023. The Federal Reserve, now under Kevin Warsh, held rates at 3.75% and offered no forward guidance. A cut by June, which many had expected earlier in the year, is no longer on the table. The tone shifted in the sec

In this episode of Wisdom Shared, Senior Investment Manager Harry Children and CIO Fahad Hassan explore why equity markets are near all-time highs despite geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices, and sticky inflation.

Yesterday, Charlie Parker and Fahad Hassan led our latest market drop-in. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, sharp moves in energy markets and a highly uncertain political backdrop, corporate earnings are continuing to deliver positive surprises. If you weren’t able to attend, you’ll find below a concise overview of the key themes currently driving markets and shaping our thinking.

1. Semiconductor stock supernova The dominant positive trend in equity markets since the recovery began in early April has been strength in AI infrastructure-related stocks. This has been influenced primarily by growing evidence that large language models (LLMs) are beginning to generate meaningful revenue and are becoming increasingly embedded within enterprise workflows. At the beginning of April, Anthropic - the company behind Claude - announced a 300% increase in annualis

April marked a distinct turn in the tone of markets. The rhetoric and bluster of March gave way to hopes of diplomacy as both sides stepped back from war and brinkmanship. Investors are betting that the rise in inflation and hit to growth will prove temporary, a view that remains uncertain but has been sufficient to steady sentiment for now. First-quarter earnings have, so far, stayed close to plan. With around a quarter of US large-cap companies having reported, earnings are

1. Trump blockade and failed talks - long lasting effects The US and Iran have failed to close a deal regarding the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Trump has announced a naval blockade of the Strait, with an intention of intercepting vessels heading to or from Iranian ports and clearing mines laid in the waterway. By doing this, Trump has threatened to cut off Iran's oil exports and end its practice of charging ships a toll to pass, stripping Tehran of the ec

Fahad Hassan, CIO Executive summary US-Israel-Iran conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices are higher. Portfolios had already been defensively positioned — gilts exited, duration cut, UK mid-caps and European small caps removed — all of which have since fallen sharply. Macro The last month has seen a reset of inflation expectations, as the US and Israel entered a conflict with Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow body of water responsible for

It is impossible to second guess the next move in markets given the underlying complexity of the war in Iran. Particularly given the impact that President Trump’s comments are having on markets. What is becoming increasingly apparent is that even with a swift resolution to the conflict, the disruption from the war will result in inflated energy costs for some time.

Charlie Parker and Fahad Hassan analyse how the war in Iran, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting oil shock are rapidly altering inflation, interest‑rate expectations and the dollar.

There can be no doubt that this is a profoundly dangerous moment for the world. The risk that the current conflict in the Middle East becomes an entrenched war that could undermine global economic growth is very real.

Charlie Parker and Eleanor Williams examine US vulnerabilities in global supply chains, in particular their dependence on Chinese rare earth and drug components. The hosts discuss the short-term risks and policy responses underway to reduce that exposure and where this may lead.

February ended with a sharp escalation in the Middle East that may have materially altered the risk landscape for global markets.

We kick off our American Empire series with a close look at why the US has remained a dominant and resilient global force despite vulnerabilities.