Yesterday, Charlie Parker and Fahad Hassan led our latest market drop-in. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, sharp moves in energy markets and a highly uncertain political backdrop, corporate earnings are continuing to deliver positive surprises. If you weren’t able to attend, you’ll find below a concise overview of the key themes currently driving markets and shaping our thinking.

April marked a distinct turn in the tone of markets. The rhetoric and bluster of March gave way to hopes of diplomacy as both sides stepped back from war and brinkmanship. Investors are betting that the rise in inflation and hit to growth will prove temporary, a view that remains uncertain but has been sufficient to steady sentiment for now. First-quarter earnings have, so far, stayed close to plan. With around a quarter of US large-cap companies having reported, earnings are

1. Trump blockade and failed talks - long lasting effects The US and Iran have failed to close a deal regarding the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Trump has announced a naval blockade of the Strait, with an intention of intercepting vessels heading to or from Iranian ports and clearing mines laid in the waterway. By doing this, Trump has threatened to cut off Iran's oil exports and end its practice of charging ships a toll to pass, stripping Tehran of the ec

There can be no doubt that this is a profoundly dangerous moment for the world. The risk that the current conflict in the Middle East becomes an entrenched war that could undermine global economic growth is very real.

February ended with a sharp escalation in the Middle East that may have materially altered the risk landscape for global markets.

Market volatility punctuated the start of 2026 and is continuing into February across all equity markets, with even the star of 2025, precious metals, not shielded from the storm.

The start of 2026 has seen a continued bout of volatility despite a largely positive backdrop for risky assets like shares.

Global markets were unsettled after reports that US prosecutors had opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, an unprecedented development that has intensified concerns over the independence of US monetary policy.

Global equities ended 2025 near all-time highs, driven by earnings strength despite persistent political and macro uncertainty.

After three consecutive interest rate cuts, investors now face an increasingly uncertain US monetary policy outlook for the year ahead.

Market Commentary - December 2025. It has been a volatile yet fruitful year for investors. November encapsulated both qualities in a single month. What began as an orderly reassessment of artificial intelligence valuations briefly threatened to become something uglier. Bargain hunters and rate-cut optimism then combined to rescue markets from their mid-month lows.

Stocks reached new heights in October, boosted by a breakthrough US-China trade agreement and exceptional corporate earnings. President Trump and President Xi Jinping reached a comprehensive agreement in Busan, South Korea, that reduced tariffs and suspended export controls.