April marked a distinct turn in the tone of markets. The rhetoric and bluster of March gave way to hopes of diplomacy as both sides stepped back from war and brinkmanship. Investors are betting that the rise in inflation and hit to growth will prove temporary, a view that remains uncertain but has been sufficient to steady sentiment for now. First-quarter earnings have, so far, stayed close to plan. With around a quarter of US large-cap companies having reported, earnings are

1. Trump blockade and failed talks - long lasting effects The US and Iran have failed to close a deal regarding the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Trump has announced a naval blockade of the Strait, with an intention of intercepting vessels heading to or from Iranian ports and clearing mines laid in the waterway. By doing this, Trump has threatened to cut off Iran's oil exports and end its practice of charging ships a toll to pass, stripping Tehran of the ec

It is impossible to second guess the next move in markets given the underlying complexity of the war in Iran. Particularly given the impact that President Trump’s comments are having on markets. What is becoming increasingly apparent is that even with a swift resolution to the conflict, the disruption from the war will result in inflated energy costs for some time.

Escalating conflict in the Middle East was the dominant driver of global markets in early March. The conflict raised concerns that the situation could broaden, particularly given the proximity to critical energy infrastructure and shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil supply passes and which travel through remains disrupted.

Charlie Parker and Fahad Hassan analyse how the war in Iran, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting oil shock are rapidly altering inflation, interest‑rate expectations and the dollar.

There can be no doubt that this is a profoundly dangerous moment for the world. The risk that the current conflict in the Middle East becomes an entrenched war that could undermine global economic growth is very real.

February ended with a sharp escalation in the Middle East that may have materially altered the risk landscape for global markets.

We kick off our American Empire series with a close look at why the US has remained a dominant and resilient global force despite vulnerabilities.

Charlie Parker and Eleanor Williams introduce our new series exploring whether the United States could be entering a period of decline.

It may be the start of the year, but investors could already be forgiven for feeling they have endured false dawns. Geopolitical anxieties have flared, markets have wobbled and steadied, and New Year optimism has met the stubborn realities of macroeconomics

Markets are forecasting interest rate cuts across the rich world in the early part of 2026. This offers the potential for improved performance from parts of the global stockmarket that have been less immediately lifted by the growth of artificial intelligence.